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ABOUT
Publications
EVENTS
Commentary

Members

Publications

13 Aspen Economic Strategy Group Reports related to the American Jobs and Families Plans
14 Facts about US Investments in Infrastructure and R&D
A Policy Agenda to Develop Human Capital for the Modern Economy
A Policymaker’s Guide to Labor Force Participation
A Proposal for an Enhanced Partially Refundable Child Tax Credit
A Renter Safety Net: A Call for Federal Emergency Rental Assistance
Addressing Inequities in the US K-12 Education System
AESG Member Statement in Support of Immediate Pandemic Relief
AESG Member Statement on COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Crisis
AESG Member Statement on Economic Policy Priorities
AESG Member Statement: A Call for US Leadership on Global Vaccination Efforts
America and International Trade Cooperation
April 2024 CPI Report: A Step in the Right Direction
April 2024 Jobs Report: A Best-Case Scenario for the Fed?
April 2024 Jobs Report: Steady-As-She-Goes Labor Market
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Examines Challenges and Opportunities of the Post-Pandemic Economy in New Policy Volume
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Releases 2023 Annual Policy Volume: Building a More Resilient US Economy
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Releases New Policy Analyses Examining the US Infrastructure Agenda
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Releases New Policy Analysis on Why and How to Expand US Immigration
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Welcomes Five New Members
Aspen Economic Strategy Group welcomes seven new members
August 2024 Jobs Report: The Summer Slowdown Continues
Biden should embrace a carbon tax
Book Launch Recap: Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism
Book: Building a More Resilient US Economy
Book: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
Bringing Jobs to People: Improving Local Economic Development Policies
Brookings Institution: Six reasons why an expanded Child Tax Credit or child allowance should be part of the US safety net
Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster
Business Insider: The Math Is Clear: Universal Basic Income Is A Terrible Idea
Can Innovation Policy Restore Inclusive Prosperity in America?
Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses to Market Concentration
Challenges of a Clean Energy Transition and Implications for Energy Infrastructure Policy
Chronicle of Higher Education Op-Ed: Yes, College is ‘Worth It’
Climate Convexity: The Inequality of a Warming World
Climate Policy Enters Four Dimensions
Concerns About Concentration
COP27 and Climate Inequality
Creating Economic Opportunity for More Americans Through Productivity Growth
Data-Driven Opportunities to Scale Reemployment Opportunities and Social Insurance for Unemployed Workers During the Recovery
Economic Perspectives on Infrastructure Investment
Economic Strategy for Higher Wages and Expanded Labor Participation
Eight Questions—and Some Answers—on the US Fiscal Situation
Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans
Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans: Foreword
Figure 1: 2019 Federal Spending Per Capita, by Age
Figure 1: 2019-2022 NAEP Math Score Changes vs. Free or Reduced-Price Lunch Rates
Figure 1: Annual percent change in the US population, 1900-2021
Figure 1: Average TFP growth in the United States
Figure 1: Components of the Federal Deficit or Surplus as a Percentage of GDP, 1940–2053
Figure 1: Employment in energy extraction, refining, and electricity generation, 2021
Figure 1: Federal debt held by the public, 1940-2053
Figure 1: Federal Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP Since 1980
Figure 1: Foreign-born population 1850-2020
Figure 1: Income and Expenditures over the Pandemic
Figure 1: Per Capita GDP Ratio (China/US)
Figure 1: Semiconductor Supply Chain Investments Announced from May 2020 to June 2023
Figure 1: Share of the US population 65 and older
Figure 1: SSA’s projections for the OASDI trust fund: 2004 versus 2023
Figure 1: Trend in US general fertility rate
Figure 1: US Medicine Spending Levels and Segmentation by Channel, 2016-2021
Figure 10: Annual Return to Human Capital, 1990-2021
Figure 10: Average federal tax rates by income bracket, 1979-2019
Figure 10: PBM rebate arrangements for traditional and speciality medications in employer-sponsored plans, by employer size, 2014 vs. 2018
Figure 10: Share of inventors employed on young firms
Figure 11: Optimal US R&D subsidy, over different bilateral tariff rates
Figure 11: The Median Medicare Part D Plan: Total Cost by Drug
Figure 12: Optimal tariff policy and innovation over varying levels of trade openness
Figure 12: Share of Medicare Part D Drug Costs Paid by Enrollees, Plans, Drug Manufacturers, and Medicare, 2023-2025
Figure 13: Distribution and Reimbursement of Provider-Administered Outpatient Drugs: Buy-And-Bill
Figure 13: Foreign corporate venture capital as a share of all us venture capital investment
Figure 14: Impact of foreign investment on firm patents and citations
Figure 14: Median Generic Prices Relative to Brand Price Before Generic Entry: Average Manufacturer Price (AMP)
Figure 15: Inventors and parental income
Figure 16: Biosimilar Uptake Curve
Figure 16: United States Tax Reform Act of 1986 and inventor migration
Figure 17: Medicare’s Market Share for the 84 Most Expensive Part B Drugs in 2015
Figure 17: Patents and the income share of the top 1 percent
Figure 18: Public R&D expenditure as a fraction of GDP
Figure 1A: Gross expenditures on R&D (GERD) and R&D intensity: 2019 or most recent data year, top 17 countries
Figure 1B: Gross domestic expenditures on R&D, by selected country: 1990-2019
Figure 2: Children ever born by Mother’s age, by Mother’s birth cohort
Figure 2: Consumer Spending in Billions, Small vs. Large-Molecule Products, 2013-2017
Figure 2: Employment in fossil fuel extraction and refining, 200 and 2019
Figure 2: Federal deficit and surplus, 1963-2053
Figure 2: Federal revenues and outlays as a share of GDP
Figure 2: Income and Expenditures over the Great Recession
Figure 2: Net international migration inflows 2011-2021
Figure 2: Pandemic-Induced Learning Loss Higher for Minority School Districts and Share of Students Learning Remotely
Figure 2: Percentage Change in Concentration of Import Sources of IPEF Countries, 2010-2021
Figure 2: Population change and its components, 2001-2021
Figure 2: Ratio of covered workers to Social Security beneficiaries
Figure 2: Share of Federal Outlays by Category, 2019
Figure 2: The Rise of Pass-Through Businesses
Figure 2: United States vs. China by GDP, 1990-2006
Figure 2: US R&D expenditures, by funding source: 1990 – 2020
Figure 2: Widening labor productivity gap
Figure 2(a): CBO Projections for Federal Spending and Revenues, 2008–2053
Figure 2(b): CBO Projections for Federal Spending and Revenues, 2008–2053
Figure 3: Actual and projected annual deficits for Social Security
Figure 3: Annual Economic Growth Rate of US and China, 1980-2026
Figure 3: Annual FDA Drug Approvals by Product Type, 1998-2020
Figure 3: Average funds per capita versus Congressional Representation and Congressional Democratic party share
Figure 3: Components of federal outlays as a share of GDP
Figure 3: Distribution of green card admission types, average 2011-2019
Figure 3: Employment in electric power generation and natural gas distribution, 2000 and 2019
Figure 3: Firm entry and exit rates and the employment share of young firms in the United States
Figure 3: Government Spending Shares Within Age Groups, by Major Category, 2019
Figure 3: Import and Export Shares for IPEF Countries, by Selected Partners, 2021
Figure 3: R&D funding, by type of funding and sector: 2019
Figure 3: Share of US population 65 and older, 2000-2053
Figure 3: Top Income Sources in 2019
Figure 3: Total fertility rate in the United States and other high-income countries
Figure 4: Business Wealth as a Component of Top Wealth Portfolios
Figure 4: China’s Exports, Imports, and Total Trade Relative to GDP, 1952-2022
Figure 4: Components of federal revenues as a share of GDP
Figure 4: Employment in energy intensive manufacturing, 2000 and 2019
Figure 4: Estimated shortfall from 2020 (Q2) – 2022 (Q2)
Figure 4: Federal, State/Local, and Private Philanthropic Spending Per Capita, by Age Group, 2019
Figure 4: Gross job reallocation
Figure 4: Parsing the change in the federal deficit, 2024-2053
Figure 4: Pending USCIS petitions 2013-22
Figure 4: R&D performance, by type of funding and sector: 2019
Figure 4: Share of US Electronics Imports for China and Vietnam, 2010-2021
Figure 4: Size of the US working-age (25-54) population
Figure 4: Social Security PIA versus AIME benefit formula in 2022
Figure 4: Total US Retail Prescription-Drug Spending, 2017
Figure 5: Different vintages of federal debt projections, 2000-2053
Figure 5: Federal R&D funding by agency: 2022 ($MILLIONS)
Figure 5: Firm growth rate dispersion in the United States
Figure 5: Indexed tax base shortfalls and surpluses based on simple linear forecasts
Figure 5: Marginal Value of Public Funds (Ratio of Benefits to Net Government Costs), by Age of Beneficiary
Figure 5: Per Capita Gross Regional Product in China in 2022, by Province or Region
Figure 5: Social Security Administration fertility assumptions, 2021
Figure 5: Social Security lifetime benefit-to-tax ratios
Figure 5: Social Security’s full retirement age by year of birth
Figure 5: The Decline of Effective Corporate Tax Rates
Figure 5: The decline of employment in coal mining
Figure 5: The US Pharmacy Distribution and Reimbursement System for Patient-Administered, Outpatient Brand-Name Drugs
Figure 6: Different vintages of federal noninterest spending and revenues projections, 2000-2053
Figure 6: Direct funding of business R&D and Tax Incentives for R&D, United States: 2000-2018
Figure 6: Impact of the decline of coal on employment, earnings, and population
Figure 6: MVPF vs. Per Capita Spending, by Age
Figure 6: Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’ Off-Invoice Discounts, Rebates, and Price Concessions, 2008-2022
Figure 6: Registry of patents
Figure 6: Relationship between female labor force participation rates and total fertility rates in OECD countries
Figure 6: Social Security benefit to earnings replacement rates at age 65
Figure 6A: Presence of State Capital in the Chinese Economy
Figure 6B: Fraction of the Chinese Economy Occupied by SOEs, by Government Investment Level
Figure 7: Actual and projected interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, 1992-2033
Figure 7: Annual Value of Foreign Direct Investment Transactions Between the US and China, 2000-2020
Figure 7: Growth in List and Net Prices Per Treatment Course or Annual Treatment Supply in Select Categories (2012-2017)
Figure 7: Impact of the decline of coal on government transfers
Figure 7: Reassignment of patents
Figure 8: GDP and TFP Growth in China, 1978-2022
Figure 8: Impact of the decline of coal on government transfers
Figure 8: Projected debt/GDP under alternative assumptions, 2023, 2033, and 2053
Figure 8: Self-citation and claim length patterns
Figure 8: Type of Cost Sharing for Prescription Drug Benefits, Employer-Sponsored Plans Without High Deductibles, by Benefit Tier, 2022
Figure 9: 90-50 differential in high-tech sector
Figure 9: Average Cost Sharing by Prescription Drug Tier, Employer-Sponsored Plans, 2022
Figure 9: Evolutions of TFP Growth Rates for Selective Economies as a Function of their Relative Per Capita GDP to the US
Figure 9: Federal spending and revenues, 1963-2053
Figure A1: Impact of the decline of coal on population headcounts by age cohort
Figure A2: Change in employment in energy industries, 2000 to 2019
Figure A3: Fossil fuel extraction, refining, and distribution plus energy intensive manufacturing
Financial Times Op-Ed: America’s slowing population growth is here to stay
Fiscal Policy With High Debt and Low Interest Rates
Foreword: Building a More Resilient US Economy
Foreword: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
Foreword: Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism
Foreword: Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy
Harnessing the Power of Markets to Solve the Climate Problem
High and Rising US Federal Debt: Causes and Implications
How Minimum Zoning Mandates Can Improve Housing Markets and Expand Opportunity
How much have childcare challenges slowed the US jobs market recovery?
In Brief: Building Security in the Semiconductor Supply Chain
IN BRIEF: Cutting the Safety Net Is Not an Effective Way to Reduce Government Spending
IN BRIEF: Entrepreneurship Since the COVID-19 Pandemic
IN BRIEF: Pandemic-Era Student Learning Loss and the Policy Response
IN BRIEF: The College Wage Premium Through the COVID-19 Pandemic
In Brief: The Recent Rise in US Labor Productivity
IN BRIEF: The Who, What, and Why of Declining College Enrollment, 2019-2021
IN BRIEF: The Wide Class Divide in Family Structure
Internet Access and its Implications for Productivity, Inequality, and Resilience
Introduction: Building a More Resilient US Economy
Introduction: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
Introduction: Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism
Introduction: Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy
Introduction: Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism
Introduction: The Need to Expand Economic Opportunity
Is the Decline of the Middle Class Greatly Exaggerated?
July 2024 CPI Report: Trending Towards Two
June 2024 CPI Report: The Summer Cooldown Continues
June 2024 Jobs Report: Entering a New Phase of the Job Market
Lessons from COVID-19 Aid to State and Local Governments for the Design of Federal Automatic Stabilizers
Local Labor Market Impacts of the Energy Transition: Prospects and Policies
Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism
Manufacturing Resilience: The US Drive to Reorder Global Supply Chains
March 2024 Jobs Report: Three Things to Know
May 2024 CPI Report: Can the US Economy Have it All?
May 2024 Jobs Report: Mixed Messages in the Job Market
Middle-Class Redistribution: Tax and Transfer Policy for Most Americans
New Insights for Innovation Policy
New York Times: How to Get Americans to Love Capitalism Again
Overcoming Pandemic-Induced Learning Loss
Policies to Reintegrate Former Inmates Into the Labor Force
Policy Options for Taxing the Rich
Press Release: Why Drug Pricing Is Complicated
Protectionism is Failing and Wrongheaded: An Evaluation of the Post-2017 Shift toward Trade Wars and Industrial Policy
Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy
Reforming Social Security for the Long Haul
Restoring Economic Opportunity for “The People Left Behind”: Employment Strategies for Rural America
Rising Childlessness is Driving the Decline in Birth Rates in the United States
Scaling Apprenticeship to Increase Human Capital
Science and Innovation: The Under-Fueled Engine of Prosperity
Securing Our Economic Future
Securing Our Economic Future: Foreword
Securing Our Economic Future: Introduction
Seven Recent Developments in US Science Funding
State Capacity for Building Infrastructure
Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism
Table 1: PROJECT SELECTION MODELS
Taskforce Report: Promoting Economic Recovery After COVID-19
Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market
The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility
The Challenges of Leveraging Online Education for Economically Vulnerable Mid-Career Americans
The Economic Case for Smart Investing in America’s Youth
The Economics of Medicare for All
The Faltering Escalator of Urban Opportunity
The Higher Wages Tax Credit
The Hill Op-Ed: Emerging from the COVID-19 crisis as a better and more resilient society
The Hill Op-Ed: How to fight poverty and boost work with an enhanced Child Tax Credit
The Link Between Wages and Productivity Is Strong
The Next Business Tax Regime: What Comes After the TCJA
The Small Role of Ivy League Schools in US Higher Education
The Surprising Resilience of Globalization: An Examination of Claims of Economic Fragmentation
The Widening Economic and Social Gaps Between Young Men and Women
TIME Magazine Op-Ed: Too Many High School Seniors Are Turning Away from College Altogether
Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a Policy Response to Current Challenges
Walking the Tightrope: Variable Income and Limited Liquidity Among the US Middle Class
Washington Post Op-Ed: Americans are being left behind. Here’s how we fix it.
Washington Post Op-Ed: How to save millions of Americans from losing their homes
Washington Post Op-Ed: What a successful economic recovery plan must look like
Washington Post: Americans are being left behind. Here’s how we fix it.
Wealth Taxation: An Overview of the Issues
What Works in Career and Technical Education (CTE)? A Review of Evidence and Suggested Policy Directions
What’s After the Downturn?
Where Is China’s Economy Headed?
Why and How to Expand US Immigration
Why Crime Matters, and What to Do About It
Why Drug Pricing Reform Is Complicated: A Primer and Policy Guide to Pharmaceutical Prices in the US
Will Population Aging Push Us over a Fiscal Cliff?
Will the climate incentives in the IRA be enough to meaningfully reduce emissions?

Authors

Events

A Conversation with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
Book Launch: Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism
Book Launch: Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism
Building a More Resilient US Economy
Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans: Bipartisan Policies to Increase Work, Wages, and Skills
Is the U.S. Headed for Stagflation?
LABOR MARKET IMPACTS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION
Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism
Overcoming Pandemic Learning Loss: Bringing High-Dosage Tutoring to Students Nationwide
Promoting American Innovation and Competitiveness: The Role of Infrastructure, R&D Investment, and Industrial Policy
Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy
Securing Our Economic Future: Policies to Strengthen the Middle Class and Address Climate Change
Semiconductor Security: The Race to Revitalize US Chip Manufacturing
Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism
Ukraine’s Recovery and Reconstruction

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December 12 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
Book Launch Recap: Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism

This week the AESG published our seventh annual policy volume, Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism. This year’s volume features six papers covering topics including US trade and industrial policy, America’s…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
December 10 2024 | Books
Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism

BOOK (pdf) The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s seventh annual policy volume focuses on the theme,…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
December 06 2024 | Papers
Why Crime Matters, and What to Do About It

Download Paper Executive Summary In this paper, Jennifer Doleac describes what is known about crime trends in the US and outlines the…

Jennifer Doleac
December 04 2024 | Papers
State Capacity for Building Infrastructure

Download Paper Executive Summary Data Appendix This paper, by Zachary Liscow, examines state capacity for infrastructure construction in…

Zachary Liscow
December 04 2024 | Papers
Eight Questions—and Some Answers—on the US Fiscal Situation

Download Paper Executive Summary In this paper, Jason Furman addresses eight specific questions essential to understanding the US fiscal situation and what…

Jason Furman
October 17 2024 | Papers
The Surprising Resilience of Globalization: An Examination of Claims of Economic Fragmentation

Download Paper Executive Summary This paper evaluates the current landscape of global trade and financial flows and proposes a set of reforms…

Brad Setser
October 16 2024 | Papers
Introduction: Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism

Read Full Introduction Global tensions and domestic discontent are driving a new era of economic policymaking. Leaders in both parties are turning away from free-market…

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
October 07 2024 | Papers
Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market

DAVID DEMING, CHRISTOPHER ONG, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS Download Paper Executive Summary Data Appendix This paper…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
October 02 2024 | Papers
Protectionism is Failing and Wrongheaded: An Evaluation of the Post-2017 Shift toward Trade Wars and Industrial Policy

Download Paper Executive Summary This paper evaluates the shift towards increasingly protectionist and nationalist policies carried out by the past…

Michael R. Strain
October 02 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
The Widening Economic and Social Gaps Between Young Men and Women

Recent social and economic data has revealed a troubling trend: young men in the US are increasingly falling behind their female peers, a long-widening gap that has…

Luke Pardue
September 09 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
August 2024 Jobs Report: The Summer Slowdown Continues

The BLS estimated that the US economy added 142,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate ticked down slightly from 4.3% to…

Luke Pardue
August 14 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
July 2024 CPI Report: Trending Towards Two

The steady cooldown in inflation that has marked much of 2024 continued in July. The Consumer Price Index rose at a 2.9%…

Luke Pardue
July 21 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
Rising Childlessness is Driving the Decline in Birth Rates in the United States

The United States has experienced a dramatic decline in birth rates, starting in 2007 and continuing through recent years. This post updates and expands on findings in…

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip Levine
July 11 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
June 2024 CPI Report: The Summer Cooldown Continues

The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.0% annual pace in June 2024, and 3.2% for all items excluding food and energy….

Luke Pardue
July 05 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
June 2024 Jobs Report: Entering a New Phase of the Job Market

The BLS estimated that the US economy added 206,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate ticking up from 4.0% to 4.1%….

Luke Pardue
June 12 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
May 2024 CPI Report: Can the US Economy Have it All?

The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual pace in May 2024, and 3.4% for all items excluding food and energy….

Luke Pardue
June 07 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
May 2024 Jobs Report: Mixed Messages in the Job Market

The BLS estimated that the US economy added 272,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate ticking up from 3.9% to 4.0%….

Luke Pardue
May 30 2024 | In Brief
In Brief: Building Security in the Semiconductor Supply Chain

Download (PDF) BRIEFLY Semiconductors are the building blocks of almost every modern technology, from dishwashers to smartphones to javelin missiles. Shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic,…

Luke Pardue
May 16 2024 | Articles & Op-Eds
Chronicle of Higher Education Op-Ed: Yes, College is ‘Worth It’

It’s time to retire skepticism around the value of a degree. Questions regarding the value of a college education have spiked recently,…

Luke Pardue
May 15 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
April 2024 CPI Report: A Step in the Right Direction

The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.4% annual pace in April 2024, and 3.6% for all items excluding food and energy….

Luke Pardue
May 03 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
April 2024 Jobs Report: Steady-As-She-Goes Labor Market

The BLS estimated that the US economy added 175,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate ticking up from 3.7% to 3.9%….

Luke Pardue
April 25 2024 | In Brief
In Brief: The Recent Rise in US Labor Productivity

BRIEFLY US labor productivity has enjoyed a period of renewed growth over the past year, interrupting a nearly twenty-year decline: the 2.7 percent productivity growth in 2023…

Luke Pardue
April 05 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
April 2024 Jobs Report: A Best-Case Scenario for the Fed?

The BLS estimated that the US economy added 303,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate ticking down from 3.9% to 3.8%….

Luke Pardue
March 29 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
The Small Role of Ivy League Schools in US Higher Education

The conversation about higher education admissions in the US is often dominated by developments at the eight Ivy League institutions. While there are good reasons to debate…

Luke Pardue
March 28 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers
March 2024 Jobs Report: Three Things to Know

The BLS estimated that the US economy added 275,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate ticking up from 3.7%…

Luke Pardue
January 22 2024 | News
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Welcomes Five New Members

WASHINGTON, DC, JANUARY 22, 2024 – The Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG) today announced five new members have joined the sixty-five-member, bipartisan group of distinguished leaders and…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
December 05 2023 | In Brief
IN BRIEF: Pandemic-Era Student Learning Loss and the Policy Response

BRIEFLY The COVID-19 pandemic created not only a public health emergency but a youth education crisis as well. Decades of progress in math and reading among America’s students…

Luke Pardue
November 08 2023 | News
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Releases 2023 Annual Policy Volume: Building a More Resilient US Economy

Washington, DC, November 8, 2023 – The Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG) today released its sixth annual policy volume, Building…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
November 08 2023 | Papers
Where Is China’s Economy Headed?

The arc of the Chinese economy over the next 10 to 15 years will depend on three sets of forces, each of which interacts with the others: (1)…

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Papers
Manufacturing Resilience: The US Drive to Reorder Global Supply Chains

Global supply chains—the network through which products and services move from initial producers to final consumers—have become increasingly complex over the past several decades. Recent disruptions caused by…

Mary E. Lovely
November 08 2023 | Papers
The Economic Case for Smart Investing in America’s Youth

The United States spends a relatively small sum on children, both on a per capita basis and as a share of all spending….

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Papers
Overcoming Pandemic-Induced Learning Loss

The global COVID-19 pandemic created not only a once-a-century public health crisis but also a once-a-century public education crisis. Unfortunately, the United States federal government’s financial assistance to…

Jens Ludwig, Jonathan Guryan
November 08 2023 | Papers
The Next Business Tax Regime: What Comes After the TCJA

This essay presents the case for a better US business tax regime. First, we provide an overview of the business tax base in the…

Eric Zwick, Owen Zidar
November 08 2023 | Papers
Why Drug Pricing Reform Is Complicated: A Primer and Policy Guide to Pharmaceutical Prices in the US

Pharmaceutical pricing in the United States is a complicated and opaque process. Confusion over price setting and the method by which new drugs are brought to market can…

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Papers
Reforming Social Security for the Long Haul

Social Security is arguably America’s most important government program, as it is the main source of income for most elderly Americans and represents…

Mark Duggan
November 08 2023 | Papers
High and Rising US Federal Debt: Causes and Implications

The outlook for federal debt represents a significant economic challenge for the United States. Economic developments and policy changes over the past two decades have materially raised the level…

Karen Dynan
November 08 2023 | Papers
Introduction: Building a More Resilient US Economy

The post-pandemic US economy features a strong labor market but also persistent inflation, rising levels of debt, and acute educational challenges. These issues are compounded by ongoing, systemic…

Justin Schardin, Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Papers
Foreword: Building a More Resilient US Economy

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s sixth annual policy volume focuses on building a more resilient US economy. Several major economic and geopolitical disruptions and developments in recent years—including…

Hank Paulson, Timothy Geithner
November 08 2023 | Books
Book: Building a More Resilient US Economy

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s sixth annual policy volume, Building a More Resilient US Economy, considers some of the most pressing…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Components of the Federal Deficit or Surplus as a Percentage of GDP, 1940–2053

Justin Schardin, Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’ Off-Invoice Discounts, Rebates, and Price Concessions, 2008-2022

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Total US Retail Prescription-Drug Spending, 2017

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Federal deficit and surplus, 1963-2053

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Share of US population 65 and older, 2000-2053

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Federal, State/Local, and Private Philanthropic Spending Per Capita, by Age Group, 2019

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Business Wealth as a Component of Top Wealth Portfolios

Eric Zwick, Owen Zidar
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Share of Federal Outlays by Category, 2019

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: United States vs. China by GDP, 1990-2006

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Different vintages of federal debt projections, 2000-2053

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 7: Annual Value of Foreign Direct Investment Transactions Between the US and China, 2000-2020

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: 2019-2022 NAEP Math Score Changes vs. Free or Reduced-Price Lunch Rates

Jens Ludwig, Jonathan Guryan
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Social Security PIA versus AIME benefit formula in 2022

Mark Duggan
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 10: Annual Return to Human Capital, 1990-2021

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Top Income Sources in 2019

Eric Zwick, Owen Zidar
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 13: Distribution and Reimbursement of Provider-Administered Outpatient Drugs: Buy-And-Bill

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Federal debt held by the public, 1940-2053

From “High and Rising US Federal Debt: Causes and Implications,” by Karen Dynan.

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 8: Type of Cost Sharing for Prescription Drug Benefits, Employer-Sponsored Plans Without High Deductibles, by Benefit Tier, 2022

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2(b): CBO Projections for Federal Spending and Revenues, 2008–2053

Justin Schardin, Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Annual Economic Growth Rate of US and China, 1980-2026

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: China’s Exports, Imports, and Total Trade Relative to GDP, 1952-2022

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 9: Federal spending and revenues, 1963-2053

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Government Spending Shares Within Age Groups, by Major Category, 2019

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Percentage Change in Concentration of Import Sources of IPEF Countries, 2010-2021

Mary E. Lovely
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2(a): CBO Projections for Federal Spending and Revenues, 2008–2053

Justin Schardin, Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 10: Average federal tax rates by income bracket, 1979-2019

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 11: The Median Medicare Part D Plan: Total Cost by Drug

From, “Why Drug Pricing Reform is Complicated: A Primer and Policy Guide to Pharmaceutical Prices in the US,” by Craig…

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 7: Actual and projected interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, 1992-2033

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: US Medicine Spending Levels and Segmentation by Channel, 2016-2021

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: SSA’s projections for the OASDI trust fund: 2004 versus 2023

Mark Duggan
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: The US Pharmacy Distribution and Reimbursement System for Patient-Administered, Outpatient Brand-Name Drugs

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Federal Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP Since 1980

From, “The Next Business Tax Regime: What Comes After the TCJA,” by Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick

Eric Zwick, Owen Zidar
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 6B: Fraction of the Chinese Economy Occupied by SOEs, by Government Investment Level

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 6A: Presence of State Capital in the Chinese Economy

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: MVPF vs. Per Capita Spending, by Age

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Per Capita GDP Ratio (China/US)

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Consumer Spending in Billions, Small vs. Large-Molecule Products, 2013-2017

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Annual FDA Drug Approvals by Product Type, 1998-2020

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Actual and projected annual deficits for Social Security

From, “Reforming Social Security for the Long Haul,” by Mark Duggan

Mark Duggan
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 8: GDP and TFP Growth in China, 1978-2022

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 17: Medicare’s Market Share for the 84 Most Expensive Part B Drugs in 2015

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Pandemic-Induced Learning Loss Higher for Minority School Districts and Share of Students Learning Remotely

From, “Overcoming Pandemic-Induced Learning Loss,” by Jonathan Guryan and Jens Ludwig.

Jens Ludwig, Jonathan Guryan
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 12: Share of Medicare Part D Drug Costs Paid by Enrollees, Plans, Drug Manufacturers, and Medicare, 2023-2025

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Parsing the change in the federal deficit, 2024-2053

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 16: Biosimilar Uptake Curve

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Ratio of covered workers to Social Security beneficiaries

Mark Duggan
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Semiconductor Supply Chain Investments Announced from May 2020 to June 2023

Mary E. Lovely
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 9: Average Cost Sharing by Prescription Drug Tier, Employer-Sponsored Plans, 2022

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 8: Projected debt/GDP under alternative assumptions, 2023, 2033, and 2053

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 7: Growth in List and Net Prices Per Treatment Course or Annual Treatment Supply in Select Categories (2012-2017)

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Marginal Value of Public Funds (Ratio of Benefits to Net Government Costs), by Age of Beneficiary

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Share of US Electronics Imports for China and Vietnam, 2010-2021

Mary E. Lovely
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 9: Evolutions of TFP Growth Rates for Selective Economies as a Function of their Relative Per Capita GDP to the US

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: The Rise of Pass-Through Businesses

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: Different vintages of federal noninterest spending and revenues projections, 2000-2053

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Per Capita Gross Regional Product in China in 2022, by Province or Region

Hanming Fang
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 10: PBM rebate arrangements for traditional and speciality medications in employer-sponsored plans, by employer size, 2014 vs. 2018

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 14: Median Generic Prices Relative to Brand Price Before Generic Entry: Average Manufacturer Price (AMP)

Amanda Starc, Craig Garthwaite
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: The Decline of Effective Corporate Tax Rates

Eric Zwick, Owen Zidar
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: 2019 Federal Spending Per Capita, by Age

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Import and Export Shares for IPEF Countries, by Selected Partners, 2021

Mary E. Lovely
November 08 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Social Security’s full retirement age by year of birth

Mark Duggan
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Pending USCIS petitions 2013-22

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Distribution of green card admission types, average 2011-2019

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Net international migration inflows 2011-2021

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Foreign-born population 1850-2020

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure A3: Fossil fuel extraction, refining, and distribution plus energy intensive manufacturing

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure A2: Change in employment in energy industries, 2000 to 2019

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure A1: Impact of the decline of coal on population headcounts by age cohort

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 8: Impact of the decline of coal on government transfers

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 7: Impact of the decline of coal on government transfers

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: Impact of the decline of coal on employment, earnings, and population

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: The decline of employment in coal mining

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Employment in energy intensive manufacturing, 2000 and 2019

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Employment in electric power generation and natural gas distribution, 2000 and 2019

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Employment in fossil fuel extraction and refining, 200 and 2019

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Employment in energy extraction, refining, and electricity generation, 2021

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: Social Security benefit to earnings replacement rates at age 65

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Social Security lifetime benefit-to-tax ratios

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Components of federal revenues as a share of GDP

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Components of federal outlays as a share of GDP

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Federal revenues and outlays as a share of GDP

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Share of the US population 65 and older

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 18: Public R&D expenditure as a fraction of GDP

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 17: Patents and the income share of the top 1 percent

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 16: United States Tax Reform Act of 1986 and inventor migration

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 15: Inventors and parental income

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 14: Impact of foreign investment on firm patents and citations

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 13: Foreign corporate venture capital as a share of all us venture capital investment

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 12: Optimal tariff policy and innovation over varying levels of trade openness

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 11: Optimal US R&D subsidy, over different bilateral tariff rates

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 10: Share of inventors employed on young firms

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 9: 90-50 differential in high-tech sector

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 8: Self-citation and claim length patterns

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 7: Reassignment of patents

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: Registry of patents

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Firm growth rate dispersion in the United States

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Gross job reallocation

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Firm entry and exit rates and the employment share of young firms in the United States

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Widening labor productivity gap

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Average TFP growth in the United States

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Size of the US working-age (25-54) population

Melissa S. Kearney
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Population change and its components, 2001-2021

Amy Ganz, Melissa S. Kearney
October 12 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Annual percent change in the US population, 1900-2021

Amy Ganz, Melissa S. Kearney
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: Relationship between female labor force participation rates and total fertility rates in OECD countries

Melissa S. Kearney
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Social Security Administration fertility assumptions, 2021

Melissa S. Kearney
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Total fertility rate in the United States and other high-income countries

Melissa S. Kearney
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Children ever born by Mother’s age, by Mother’s birth cohort

Melissa S. Kearney
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Trend in US general fertility rate

Melissa S. Kearney
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Indexed tax base shortfalls and surpluses based on simple linear forecasts

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: Estimated shortfall from 2020 (Q2) – 2022 (Q2)

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: Average funds per capita versus Congressional Representation and Congressional Democratic party share

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: Income and Expenditures over the Great Recession

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 1: Income and Expenditures over the Pandemic

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 5: Federal R&D funding by agency: 2022 ($MILLIONS)

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 4: R&D performance, by type of funding and sector: 2019

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 3: R&D funding, by type of funding and sector: 2019

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 2: US R&D expenditures, by funding source: 1990 – 2020

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 1A: Gross expenditures on R&D (GERD) and R&D intensity: 2019 or most recent data year, top 17 countries

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
October 11 2023 | Figures
Figure 1B: Gross domestic expenditures on R&D, by selected country: 1990-2019

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
October 10 2023 | Figures
Figure 6: Direct funding of business R&D and Tax Incentives for R&D, United States: 2000-2018

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
October 10 2023 | Figures
Table 1: PROJECT SELECTION MODELS

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
September 19 2023 | In Brief
IN BRIEF: The Wide Class Divide in Family Structure

BRIEFLY: Children in the US are far less likely to be raised in two-parent families today than they were in prior decades, a shift Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG) director…

Luke Pardue
August 30 2023 | News
Press Release: Why Drug Pricing Is Complicated

Aspen Economic Strategy Group releases new paper by Kellogg’s Craig Garthwaite and Amanda Starc WASHINGTON, DC | WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 30, 2023 — The Aspen…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
May 24 2023 | In Brief
IN BRIEF: Cutting the Safety Net Is Not an Effective Way to Reduce Government Spending

BRIEFLY… High-stakes negotiations over the debt limit center on ways to bring government spending more in line with government revenues. The…

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
May 04 2023 | In Brief
IN BRIEF: The Who, What, and Why of Declining College Enrollment, 2019-2021

BRIEFLY… College enrollment in the US declined among recent high school graduates in the past couple of years, even as the economic returns to a college degree remain substantial –…

Luke Pardue
May 04 2023 | Articles & Op-Eds
TIME Magazine Op-Ed: Too Many High School Seniors Are Turning Away from College Altogether

For many high school seniors and their families, May 1st is “National College Decision Day,” when millions of students make a personal decision…

Luke Pardue, Melissa S. Kearney
March 09 2023 | Articles & Op-Eds
The Hill Op-Ed: How to fight poverty and boost work with an enhanced Child Tax Credit

The president’s 2024 budget, released today, calls for reinstating the 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit, which dramatically reduced child…

Melissa S. Kearney, Wendy Edelberg
March 07 2023 | In Brief
IN BRIEF: The College Wage Premium Through the COVID-19 Pandemic

IN BRIEF COVID-related disruptions coupled with a tight labor market have led to a historic decline in college enrollment of recent high school graduates over the past three…

Luke Pardue
March 01 2023 | Papers
A Proposal for an Enhanced Partially Refundable Child Tax Credit

This proposal was produced in collaboration with The Hamilton Project. The proposal will be presented by Wendy Edelberg at a Hamilton Project event on March 1st and can…

Melissa S. Kearney, Wendy Edelberg
January 17 2023 | In Brief
IN BRIEF: Entrepreneurship Since the COVID-19 Pandemic

Editor’s note: The Aspen Economic Strategy Group is pleased to welcome Luke Pardue, an economist at the payroll and HR platform Gusto, as an AESG Fellow. Luke obtained his…

Luke Pardue
January 09 2023 | News
Seven Recent Developments in US Science Funding

Over the past century, scientific research and development (R&D) has fueled US economic and military might and propelled the country’s status as a global…

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
January 09 2023 |
Foreword: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group releases its fifth annual policy volume against a backdrop of historic economic and strategic uncertainty. Supply shocks resulting from a senseless Russian…

Timothy Geithner
January 09 2023 |
Introduction: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

Economic policymakers are confronting the highest inflation in a generation, energy supply shortages, and shifting geopolitical alliances. These challenges rightfully occupy news headlines and policy debates, but longer-run…

Amy Ganz, Melissa S. Kearney
December 29 2022 | Articles & Op-Eds
Financial Times Op-Ed: America’s slowing population growth is here to stay

The US faces a demographic challenge that many other high-income countries have been facing for decades: below replacement level fertility. As American adults are choosing to have fewer children…

Melissa S. Kearney
December 10 2022 | Papers
The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility

US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from…

Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip Levine
December 10 2022 | Papers
Local Labor Market Impacts of the Energy Transition: Prospects and Policies

Gordon Hanson
December 10 2022 | Papers
Why and How to Expand US Immigration

Immigration has long been celebrated as an engine of America’s economic growth and cultural vibrancy, even as the changes it brings often cause concern among the populace. An estimated…

Tara Watson
December 10 2022 | Papers
Lessons from COVID-19 Aid to State and Local Governments for the Design of Federal Automatic Stabilizers

In this paper Clemens and Veuger analyze pandemic-era federal fiscal assistance to state and local governments and draw lessons for the design of stabilization policy. They start by…

Jeffrey Clemens, Stan Veuger
December 10 2022 | Papers
Will Population Aging Push Us over a Fiscal Cliff?

The share of the US population age 65 and older is rising dramatically. In the year 2000, 12 percent of the population was over age 65; by 2050…

John Sabelhaus
December 10 2022 | Papers
New Insights for Innovation Policy

The US economy has been suffering from weak productivity growth, business dynamism, and competition for the past several decades. The loss of a vibrant economy is even more…

Sina T. Ates, Ufuk Akcigit
December 10 2022 | Books
Book: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s Annual Policy Volume Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World marks the group’s 5th anniversary and is released against a backdrop historic economic and…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
December 06 2022 | News
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Releases New Policy Analysis on Why and How to Expand US Immigration

Immigration helps address the US’ growing demographic challenges posed by declining fertility and aging population and spurs economic growth Contact: Kelly Friendly kellyfriendly@gmail.com Washington, DC…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
November 14 2022 | News
COP27 and Climate Inequality

Much of the conversation at COP27 has focused on economic compensation and assistance for developing countries who will likely bear the greatest damages from climate change but…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
October 04 2022 | News
Will the climate incentives in the IRA be enough to meaningfully reduce emissions?

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the “IRA”) represents Congress’ most substantial attempt to date to lessen American reliance on fossil fuels and to transition the country’s…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
August 12 2022 | News
What’s After the Downturn?

AESG member Lawrence Summers and AESG director Melissa Kearney join Bloomberg TV’s David Weston to discuss what comes after the potential downturn and what the risks are…

Melissa S. Kearney
December 01 2021 | Papers
Introduction: Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy

The COVID-19 pandemic plunged the US economy into recession, challenged the survival of millions of businesses, and threatened the economic security of American households. The recession officially lasted only…

Amy Ganz, Melissa S. Kearney
December 01 2021 | Papers
Foreword: Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy

After suffering the worst economic shock since the Great Depression last year, the American economy is recovering in fits and starts. While many businesses are reopening their doors and…

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson
December 01 2021 | Papers
Data-Driven Opportunities to Scale Reemployment Opportunities and Social Insurance for Unemployed Workers During the Recovery

Job loss during recessions can have long-lasting, negative consequences for workers and their families. In particular, long-term unemployment—and the associated exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits—is associated with sustained…

Till von Wachter
December 01 2021 | Papers
Business Continuity Insurance in the Next Disaster

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an economic shock unparalleled in severity and breadth across the US economy since at least the Great Depression. The spring of 2020 saw unprecedented business…

Adi Sunderam, Eric Zwick, Samuel Hanson
December 01 2021 | Papers
Addressing Inequities in the US K-12 Education System

Despite decades of federal and state policy reforms and major philanthropic investments, there are still glaring deficiencies and inequities across the US K-12 education system. In “Addressing Inequities in…

Nora Gordon, Sarah Reber
December 01 2021 | Papers
America and International Trade Cooperation

The United States’ approach to trade policy and international engagement is in a period of transition. An AESG report titled “America and International Trade Cooperation,” written by economist Chad…

Chad P. Bown
December 01 2021 | News
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Examines Challenges and Opportunities of the Post-Pandemic Economy in New Policy Volume

Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced as group’s new Co-Chair and eight leading experts from academia and industry join as new members

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
November 30 2021 | Books
Rebuilding the Post-Pandemic Economy

After suffering the worst economic shock since the Great Depression last year, the American economy is recovering in fits and starts. While many businesses are reopening their doors and...

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
October 12 2021 | Articles & Op-Eds
Brookings Institution: Six reasons why an expanded Child Tax Credit or child allowance should be part of the US safety net

The Child Tax Credit has been part of the federal income tax code since 1997. It has been expanded many times, most recently…

Melissa S. Kearney
August 09 2021 | Member Statements
AESG Member Statement: A Call for US Leadership on Global Vaccination Efforts

The United States government should take up a position of world leadership on ending the global COVID-19 pandemic through vaccine outreach to the world. Such an effort…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
July 28 2021 | Papers
Internet Access and its Implications for Productivity, Inequality, and Resilience

The past year has brought an unprecedented change in the way Americans work, with millions of workers working from home and connecting to colleagues and clients virtually. In an…

Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas A. Bloom, Steven J. Davis
July 14 2021 | News
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Releases New Policy Analyses Examining the US Infrastructure Agenda

Three papers examine how infrastructure investments can promote economic growth and broader prosperity. Washington, DC, July 14, 2021 – The Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG) today released a set…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
July 14 2021 | Papers
Challenges of a Clean Energy Transition and Implications for Energy Infrastructure Policy

Economists Severin Borenstein (Berkeley Haas School of Business) and Ryan Kellogg (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy) discuss the major barriers that need to be overcome in…

Ryan Kellogg, Severin Borenstein
July 14 2021 | Papers
Science and Innovation: The Under-Fueled Engine of Prosperity

Benjamin Jones (Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University) argues that the United States is vastly underinvesting in…

Benjamin F. Jones
July 14 2021 | Papers
Economic Perspectives on Infrastructure Investment

THE ECONOMICS OF FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Bipartisan support for new infrastructure spending reflects a consensus view that well- chosen infrastructure investments would enhance American economic competitiveness and increase the economy’s…

Edward Glaeser, James Poterba
July 14 2021 | News
14 Facts about US Investments in Infrastructure and R&D

Bipartisan support in Congress is emerging for new strategic investments in science and technology, in addition to a trillion-dollar infrastructure deal. These proposals reflect…

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
June 01 2021 | News
13 Aspen Economic Strategy Group Reports related to the American Jobs and Families Plans

The Biden Administration’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan propose over $4.1 trillion in new government…

Amy Ganz, Emily Vincent
May 17 2021 | News
How much have childcare challenges slowed the US jobs market recovery?

The US economy lost a net of 8 million jobs between February 2020 and April 2021. Agreement is growing that people not actively seeking employment (inadequate labor…

Jason Furman, Melissa S. Kearney, Wilson Powell III
May 10 2021 | News
Biden should embrace a carbon tax

President Biden deserves credit for his actions to date on climate change. In rejoining the Paris agreement, directing new energy standards, pushing for bold congressional action, convening world leaders...

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson
February 02 2021 | News
Aspen Economic Strategy Group welcomes seven new members

New members replace outgoing Biden-Harris administration appointees and include Atlanta Fed President & CEO Raphael Bostic and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew.

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
December 10 2020 | Papers
Climate Policy Enters Four Dimensions

David Keith (Harvard) and John Deutch (MIT) discuss mechanisms to manage climate risks, which they call the climate control mechanisms: emissions reduction, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), adaptation, and solar...

David Keith, John M. Deutch
December 10 2020 | Papers
Climate Convexity: The Inequality of a Warming World

Trevor Houser of the Rhodium Group summarizes current forecasts of climate damages in the years ahead and their implications for the global economy, inequality, and health.

Trevor Houser
December 10 2020 | Papers
Securing Our Economic Future: Foreword

AESG co-chairs Hank Paulson and Erskine Bowles introduce the group's 2020 policy volume. The American economy is in the midst of a wrenching crisis, one caused by the COVID-19...

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson
December 10 2020 | Papers
Securing Our Economic Future: Introduction

The United States is currently gripped by deep uncertainty and economic anxiety. At the time of this writing, the United States is six months into the COVID-19 pandemic. More...

Amy Ganz, Melissa S. Kearney
December 10 2020 | Papers
Is the Decline of the Middle Class Greatly Exaggerated?

Professor Bruce Sacerdote of Dartmouth College asserts that claims about a vanishing middle class are not well-founded. The real challenges, he argues, are the rapidly changing nature of work...

Bruce Sacerdote
December 10 2020 | Papers
Walking the Tightrope: Variable Income and Limited Liquidity Among the US Middle Class

In this chapter, author Dan Silverman of Arizona State University describes a body of evidence showing that large fluctuations in household income are commonplace both across and within years....

Dan Silverman
December 10 2020 | Papers
Middle-Class Redistribution: Tax and Transfer Policy for Most Americans

Adam Looney (University of Utah), Jeff Larrimore (Federal Reserve Board), and David Splinter (Joint Committee on Taxation) provide an in-depth analysis of after tax and transfer incomes of middle-class...

Adam Looney, David Splinter, Jeff Larrimore
December 10 2020 | Books
Securing Our Economic Future

The Economic Strategy Group's third annual policy volume focuses on the economics of the middle class, geographic disparities in economic opportunity, and U.S. policy options to address climate change....

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
December 10 2020 | Papers
Harnessing the Power of Markets to Solve the Climate Problem

Author Gilbert E. Metcalf of Tufts University argues that a carbon tax should be the centerpiece of any portfolio of policies that aim to achieve zero net emissions. However,...

Gilbert E. Metcalf
December 04 2020 | News
Washington Post Op-Ed: How to save millions of Americans from losing their homes

The covid-19 pandemic has pushed tens of millions of Americans to the brink of eviction, revealing a gaping hole in our social safety net. The CARES Act, a federal...

Amy Ganz, Ingrid Gould Ellen, Katherine M. O'Regan
December 03 2020 | Papers
A Renter Safety Net: A Call for Federal Emergency Rental Assistance

Ingrid Gould Ellen (NYU Furman Center), Amy Ganz (Economic Strategy Group), and Katherine O’Regan (NYU Furman Center) document the costly externalities that such housing instability poses and propose the...

Amy Ganz, Ingrid Gould Ellen, Katherine M. O'Regan
November 19 2020 | Member Statements
AESG Member Statement in Support of Immediate Pandemic Relief

Amidst a resurgence in COVID-19 caseloads and continuing economic devastation from the pandemic, we urge Congress to enact legislation that focuses on the core measures necessary to provide additional...

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
August 05 2020 | Papers
Bringing Jobs to People: Improving Local Economic Development Policies

Timothy Bartik of the W.E. UpJohn Institute argues that large and persistent differences in employment rates across U.S. places highlight the need for local economic development policies to better...

Timothy J. Bartik
July 08 2020 | Papers
The Faltering Escalator of Urban Opportunity

Since 1980, college-educated workers have been steadily moving into affluent cities while non-college workers have been moving out. At the core of understanding why non-college workers (defined by author...

David Autor
June 16 2020 | Articles & Op-Eds
Washington Post Op-Ed: What a successful economic recovery plan must look like

It was good news that the economy added 2.5 million jobs last month. But…

Glenn Hubbard, Jason Furman, Melissa S. Kearney, Timothy Geithner
June 16 2020 | News
Taskforce Report: Promoting Economic Recovery After COVID-19

This report puts forward a set of policies that should be part of the next wave of fiscal policy aimed at bolstering individuals and workers, small and mid-sized businesses,...

Glenn Hubbard, Jason Furman, Melissa S. Kearney, Timothy Geithner
April 11 2020 | Articles & Op-Eds
The Hill Op-Ed: Emerging from the COVID-19 crisis as a better and more resilient society

Our nation is facing a once-in-a-generation challenge in the COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic crisis. These events will define us for decades to come, and we can only hope…

Melissa S. Kearney
March 25 2020 | Member Statements
AESG Member Statement on COVID-19 Pandemic and Economic Crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic is at once threatening American lives, the sustainability of our nation’s health care system, and our economic prosperity. Our paramount concern at this moment should be to slow…

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
January 03 2020 | Member Statements
AESG Member Statement on Economic Policy Priorities

We, the undersigned members of the AESG, have collectively worked at the highest levels of the policy, business, government, academic, and civic communities. We believe that our nation’s economic...

ASPEN ECONOMIC STRATEGY GROUP
December 11 2019 | News
New York Times: How to Get Americans to Love Capitalism Again

American capitalism is at a serious inflection point. Many Americans, including the two of us, are alarmed by enormous levels of inequality and by declining economic mobility. We are...

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson
November 25 2019 | News
Business Insider: The Math Is Clear: Universal Basic Income Is A Terrible Idea

It's not a new idea, but few could have predicted that talk about universal basic income (UBI) would be receiving as much attention as it is today — especially...

Magne Mogstad, Melissa S. Kearney
November 21 2019 | Papers
Policy Options for Taxing the Rich

Batchelder and Kamin argue the United States must raise new revenue in order to reduce high levels of economic disparity, finance much-needed new services and investments, and address the...

David Kamin, Lily Batchelder
November 21 2019 | Papers
Wealth Taxation: An Overview of the Issues

Viard argues that a wealth tax in the U.S. would pose administrative and constitutional challenges. As an economic matter, such a tax would decrease savings and investment, thereby lowering...

Alan D. Viard
November 21 2019 | Papers
Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a Policy Response to Current Challenges

Kearney and Mogstad argue that, in practice, a UBI would be an extremely expensive, inefficiently targeted, and potentially harmful policy that would solve none of the economic challenges it...

Magne Mogstad, Melissa S. Kearney
November 21 2019 | Papers
The Economics of Medicare for All

Garthwaite argues that the current public debate about Medicare For All fails to take into account the likely consequences that such a large change to the health-care system would...

Craig Garthwaite
November 21 2019 | Papers
Can Innovation Policy Restore Inclusive Prosperity in America?

Van Reenen argues the U.S. should pursue a robust innovation policy composed of tax credits, direct subsidies, and human capital investments, which have been shown to spur innovation and...

John Van Reenen
November 21 2019 | Papers
Fiscal Policy With High Debt and Low Interest Rates

Gale argues that although historically low interest rates reduce the cost of government borrowing, they are not a "get out of jail free card." Rising debt will slowly but...

William Gale
November 21 2019 | Papers
Concerns About Concentration

Rose argues that highly aggregated measures of concentration across industries, which are used in many of the most provocative studies, cannot be used to draw conclusions about concentration dynamics...

Nancy L. Rose
November 21 2019 | Papers
Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses to Market Concentration

Philippon asserts that growth in aggregate measures of market concentration since the early 2000s is largely attributable to the weakening of competition. Lower levels of competition, Philippon argues, are...

Thomas Philippon
November 21 2019 | Books
Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism

The essays contained in this volume seek to clarify the lines of debate on some of the greatest economic policy challenges of our time and present evidence- based analysis...

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
November 21 2019 | Papers
Introduction: Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism

A national debate about the strength and fairness of American capitalism is taking place against a backdrop of vast levels of income and wealth inequality, growing pessimism about the...

Amy Ganz, Melissa S. Kearney
November 21 2019 | Papers
Foreword: Maintaining the Strength of American Capitalism

The American economic system has always been the foundation of our national strength. But this foundation is showing cracks—from high levels of income inequality, declining economic mobility, and persistent...

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson
February 04 2019 | Books
Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans

Over the course of the past year, the Aspen Economic Strategy Group collected policy ideas to address the barriers to broad-based economic opportunity and identified concrete proposals with bipartisan...

Aspen Economic Strategy Group
February 04 2019 | News
Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans: Foreword

The American economy is stronger today than it has been in many years. At the time of this writing, jobs are plentiful and the country's economic expansion is the...

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson
February 04 2019 | Papers
Policies to Reintegrate Former Inmates Into the Labor Force

Incarceration rates in the United States have more than tripled in recent decades as rehabilitation has gradually taken a back seat to a policy agenda emphasizing punishment and incapacitation....

Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine Løken, Manudeep Bhuller
February 04 2019 | Papers
What Works in Career and Technical Education (CTE)? A Review of Evidence and Suggested Policy Directions

Career and technical education (CTE) is widely viewed as an important alternative to traditional four-year colleges, a means of increasing the earnings of U.S.workers, and an effective response to...

Ann Huff Stevens
February 04 2019 | Papers
A Policymaker’s Guide to Labor Force Participation

This chapter aims to provide policy makers with a useful framework for thinking about the question: “Why are so many people deciding that seeking work isn’t worth it?” After...

Bruce Reed, Keith Hennessy
February 04 2019 | Papers
The Challenges of Leveraging Online Education for Economically Vulnerable Mid-Career Americans

This chapter lays out some of the central questions policymakers should ask when considering plans to leverage online education for economically vulnerable mid-career Americans, as well as the state...

Joshua Goodman
February 04 2019 | Papers
The Higher Wages Tax Credit

In this chapter, author David Neumark proposes a Higher Wages Tax Credit (HWTC) to partially offset the costs imposed by minimum wage increases on firms that employ low-skilled labor....

David Neumark
February 04 2019 | Papers
A Policy Agenda to Develop Human Capital for the Modern Economy

This proposal recognizes the simultaneous need for more college educated workers and also for a higher level of labor market skill among non-college educated individuals. The authors propose to...

Amy Ganz, Austan Goolsbee, Glenn Hubbard, Melissa S. Kearney
February 04 2019 | Papers
The Link Between Wages and Productivity Is Strong

In this chapter, author Michael R. Strain first discusses the wage-setting process and the conceptual issues that are of critical importance to any empirical investigation of the link between...

Michael R. Strain
February 04 2019 | Papers
Introduction: The Need to Expand Economic Opportunity

The pursuit of economic opportunity for all Americans is as important to the health of the country’s economy as it is to the strength of its democracy. The promise...

Amy Ganz, Melissa S. Kearney
February 04 2019 | Papers
Creating Economic Opportunity for More Americans Through Productivity Growth

The U.S. economy in recent years has been characterized by slow average productivity growth and increasing productivity dispersion within industries. In this essay, author Chad Syverson discusses research into...

Chad Syverson
February 04 2019 | Papers
Restoring Economic Opportunity for “The People Left Behind”: Employment Strategies for Rural America

In order to stimulate employment in rural areas, author James P. Ziliak proposes a two-fold strategy of bringing “people to jobs” and “jobs to people,” an approach that combines...

James P. Ziliak
February 04 2019 | Papers
Scaling Apprenticeship to Increase Human Capital

In this chapter, author Robert Lerman argues that a large-scale apprenticeship program could address these challenges, while also yielding substantial additional gains for employers and the U.S. economy. He...

Robert I. Lerman
February 04 2019 | Papers
Economic Strategy for Higher Wages and Expanded Labor Participation

In this chapter, authors Jason Furman and Phillip Swagel propose two alternative policy options for promoting increased earnings and employment of low-income households: expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit...

Jason Furman, Phillip Swagel
February 04 2019 | Papers
How Minimum Zoning Mandates Can Improve Housing Markets and Expand Opportunity

State-level Minimum Zoning Mandates (MZMs) allowing landowners to build at a state-guaranteed minimum density, even in municipalities resistant to development, would be an effective means of encouraging denser housing...

Joshua D. Gottlieb
January 27 2019 | Articles & Op-Eds
Washington Post Op-Ed: Americans are being left behind. Here’s how we fix it.

Many Americans are being left behind by today’s modern, global economy, and they are…

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson, Melissa S. Kearney
January 27 2019 | News
Washington Post: Americans are being left behind. Here’s how we fix it.

Many Americans are being left behind by today’s modern, global economy, and they are justifiably angry about it. Growing numbers of people feel our economic and political systems are...

Erskine Bowles, Hank Paulson, Melissa S. Kearney

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