The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility
US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from one generation to the next. Our analysis suggests that this trend is unlikely to reverse in the coming years. The decline in births is widespread across demographic groups ...
Foreword: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
The Aspen Economic Strategy Group releases its fifth annual policy volume against a backdrop of historic economic and strategic uncertainty. Supply shocks resulting from a senseless Russian war in Ukraine are exacerbating already soaring energy and food prices. Increasing hostility between the United States and China is accelerating the transition to a world of rival ...
Seven Recent Developments in US Science Funding
Over the past century, scientific research and development (R&D) has fueled US economic and military might and propelled the country’s status as a global superpower. These investments have helped to launch not only the technologies that define modern life, including the internet, mobile and personal computing, and artificial intelligence, but also the healthcare advances that ...
In Brief: The Recent Rise in US Labor Productivity
BRIEFLY US labor productivity has enjoyed a period of renewed growth over the past year, interrupting a nearly twenty-year decline: the 2.7 percent productivity growth in 2023 outpaces the 1.5 percent annual average since 2004, and it nearly matches the 2.9 percent pace seen during the country’s last productivity surge in the 1990s. While the ...
In Brief: Building Security in the Semiconductor Supply Chain
BRIEFLY Semiconductors are the building blocks of almost every modern technology, from dishwashers to smartphones to javelin missiles. Shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic, along with rising geopolitical tensions in the region where most chips are produced, have highlighted the fragile supply chains of this critical technology. In response, US policymakers have invested billions in the ...
Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market
DAVID DEMING, CHRISTOPHER ONG, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors measure changes in the structure of the US labor market going back over a century in two ways. ...
Melissa S. Kearney
MELISSA S. KEARNEY is the Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland. She is also director of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group; a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research; and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. She currently serves on the Board of Directors of MDRC and ...
Kaye Husbands Fealing
KAYE HUSBANDS FEALING is the former Dean of the Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts and former Chair of the School of Public Policy at the Georgia Institute of Technology, where she currently holds the title professor. She is currently the Assistant Director of the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences at the National Science Foundation ...