Lessons from COVID-19 Aid to State and Local Governments for the Design of Federal Automatic Stabilizers
In this paper Clemens and Veuger analyze pandemic-era federal fiscal assistance to state and local governments and draw lessons for the design of stabilization policy. They start by explaining why the federal government plays a key role in stabilizing state and local government budgets across the business cycle, before describing the shape this role currently ...
Why and How to Expand US Immigration
Immigration has long been celebrated as an engine of America’s economic growth and cultural vibrancy, even as the changes it brings often cause concern among the populace. An estimated 13.7 percent of those living in the United States today were born outside its borders, nearly as high as the peak of 14.8 percent in 1890 ...
The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility
US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from one generation to the next. Our analysis suggests that this trend is unlikely to reverse in the coming years. The decline in births is widespread across demographic groups ...
Financial Times Op-Ed: America’s slowing population growth is here to stay
The US faces a demographic challenge that many other high-income countries have been facing for decades: below replacement level fertility. As American adults are choosing to have fewer children than previous generations did, the nation faces the prospect of slower population growth. Though some celebrate a decline in births as good news for the planet, ...
Introduction: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
Economic policymakers are confronting the highest inflation in a generation, energy supply shortages, and shifting geopolitical alliances. These challenges rightfully occupy news headlines and policy debates, but longer-run headwinds in the American economy also warrant focused attention. This volume aims to highlight three such challenges and provide constructive policy options for addressing them: the need ...
A Proposal for an Enhanced Partially Refundable Child Tax Credit
This proposal was produced in collaboration with The Hamilton Project. The proposal will be presented by Wendy Edelberg at a Hamilton Project event on March 1st and can be viewed here. INTRODUCTION The economic case for expanded income assistance to low-income families with children in this country is exceptionally strong. We have ample evidence showing ...
IN BRIEF: The College Wage Premium Through the COVID-19 Pandemic
IN BRIEF COVID-related disruptions coupled with a tight labor market have led to a historic decline in college enrollment of recent high school graduates over the past three years. This drop, however, comes as the earnings premium for a college degree remains substantial and near decades-long highs. As globalization and technological advances fuel business demands ...
The Hill Op-Ed: How to fight poverty and boost work with an enhanced Child Tax Credit
The president’s 2024 budget, released today, calls for reinstating the 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit, which dramatically reduced child poverty. The temporary effect of that one-year expansion on poverty rates was a remarkable feat — instead of what surely would have been an increase in child poverty while the economy was still weak, we saw a reduction ...
TIME Magazine Op-Ed: Too Many High School Seniors Are Turning Away from College Altogether
For many high school seniors and their families, May 1st is “National College Decision Day,” when millions of students make a personal decision about their academic future. It is also a decision with financial implications that will shape much of their lives. While headlines often cite the ultra-competitive landscape for highly selective schools, recent years have ...