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Download Paper Executive Summary In this paper, Jennifer Doleac describes what is known about crime trends in the US and outlines the…

Download Paper Executive Summary Data Appendix This paper, by Zachary Liscow, examines state capacity for infrastructure construction in…

Download Paper Executive Summary In this paper, Jason Furman addresses eight specific questions essential to understanding the US fiscal situation and what…

Download Paper Executive Summary This paper evaluates the current landscape of global trade and financial flows and proposes a set of reforms…

Read Full Introduction Global tensions and domestic discontent are driving a new era of economic policymaking. Leaders in both parties are turning away from free-market…

DAVID DEMING, CHRISTOPHER ONG, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS Download Paper Executive Summary Data Appendix This paper…

Download Paper Executive Summary This paper evaluates the shift towards increasingly protectionist and nationalist policies carried out by the past…

The arc of the Chinese economy over the next 10 to 15 years will depend on three sets of forces, each of which interacts with the others: (1)…

Global supply chains—the network through which products and services move from initial producers to final consumers—have become increasingly complex over the past several decades. Recent disruptions caused by…

The United States spends a relatively small sum on children, both on a per capita basis and as a share of all spending….

The global COVID-19 pandemic created not only a once-a-century public health crisis but also a once-a-century public education crisis. Unfortunately, the United States federal government’s financial assistance to…

This essay presents the case for a better US business tax regime. First, we provide an overview of the business tax base in the…

Pharmaceutical pricing in the United States is a complicated and opaque process. Confusion over price setting and the method by which new drugs are brought to market can…

Social Security is arguably America’s most important government program, as it is the main source of income for most elderly Americans and represents…

The outlook for federal debt represents a significant economic challenge for the United States. Economic developments and policy changes over the past two decades have materially raised the level…

The post-pandemic US economy features a strong labor market but also persistent inflation, rising levels of debt, and acute educational challenges. These issues are compounded by ongoing, systemic…

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s sixth annual policy volume focuses on building a more resilient US economy. Several major economic and geopolitical disruptions and developments in recent years—including…

This proposal was produced in collaboration with The Hamilton Project. The proposal will be presented by Wendy Edelberg at a Hamilton Project event on March 1st and can…

US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from…

Immigration has long been celebrated as an engine of America’s economic growth and cultural vibrancy, even as the changes it brings often cause concern among the populace. An estimated…

In this paper Clemens and Veuger analyze pandemic-era federal fiscal assistance to state and local governments and draw lessons for the design of stabilization policy. They start by…

The share of the US population age 65 and older is rising dramatically. In the year 2000, 12 percent of the population was over age 65; by 2050…

The US economy has been suffering from weak productivity growth, business dynamism, and competition for the past several decades. The loss of a vibrant economy is even more…

The COVID-19 pandemic plunged the US economy into recession, challenged the survival of millions of businesses, and threatened the economic security of American households. The recession officially lasted only…

After suffering the worst economic shock since the Great Depression last year, the American economy is recovering in fits and starts. While many businesses are reopening their doors and…

Job loss during recessions can have long-lasting, negative consequences for workers and their families. In particular, long-term unemployment—and the associated exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits—is associated with sustained…

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an economic shock unparalleled in severity and breadth across the US economy since at least the Great Depression. The spring of 2020 saw unprecedented business…

Despite decades of federal and state policy reforms and major philanthropic investments, there are still glaring deficiencies and inequities across the US K-12 education system. In “Addressing Inequities in…

The United States’ approach to trade policy and international engagement is in a period of transition. An AESG report titled “America and International Trade Cooperation,” written by economist Chad…

The past year has brought an unprecedented change in the way Americans work, with millions of workers working from home and connecting to colleagues and clients virtually. In an…

Economists Severin Borenstein (Berkeley Haas School of Business) and Ryan Kellogg (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy) discuss the major barriers that need to be overcome in…

Benjamin Jones (Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University) argues that the United States is vastly underinvesting in…

THE ECONOMICS OF FEDERAL INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Bipartisan support for new infrastructure spending reflects a consensus view that well- chosen infrastructure investments would enhance American economic competitiveness and increase the economy’s…

David Keith (Harvard) and John Deutch (MIT) discuss mechanisms to manage climate risks, which they call the climate control mechanisms: emissions reduction, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), adaptation, and solar...

Trevor Houser of the Rhodium Group summarizes current forecasts of climate damages in the years ahead and their implications for the global economy, inequality, and health.

AESG co-chairs Hank Paulson and Erskine Bowles introduce the group's 2020 policy volume. The American economy is in the midst of a wrenching crisis, one caused by the COVID-19...

The United States is currently gripped by deep uncertainty and economic anxiety. At the time of this writing, the United States is six months into the COVID-19 pandemic. More...

Professor Bruce Sacerdote of Dartmouth College asserts that claims about a vanishing middle class are not well-founded. The real challenges, he argues, are the rapidly changing nature of work...

In this chapter, author Dan Silverman of Arizona State University describes a body of evidence showing that large fluctuations in household income are commonplace both across and within years....

Adam Looney (University of Utah), Jeff Larrimore (Federal Reserve Board), and David Splinter (Joint Committee on Taxation) provide an in-depth analysis of after tax and transfer incomes of middle-class...

Author Gilbert E. Metcalf of Tufts University argues that a carbon tax should be the centerpiece of any portfolio of policies that aim to achieve zero net emissions. However,...

Ingrid Gould Ellen (NYU Furman Center), Amy Ganz (Economic Strategy Group), and Katherine O’Regan (NYU Furman Center) document the costly externalities that such housing instability poses and propose the...

Timothy Bartik of the W.E. UpJohn Institute argues that large and persistent differences in employment rates across U.S. places highlight the need for local economic development policies to better...

Since 1980, college-educated workers have been steadily moving into affluent cities while non-college workers have been moving out.  At the core of understanding why non-college workers (defined by author...

Batchelder and Kamin argue the United States must raise new revenue in order to reduce high levels of economic disparity, finance much-needed new services and investments, and address the...

Viard argues that a wealth tax in the U.S. would pose administrative and constitutional challenges. As an economic matter, such a tax would decrease savings and investment, thereby lowering...

Kearney and Mogstad argue that, in practice, a UBI would be an extremely expensive, inefficiently targeted, and potentially harmful policy that would solve none of the economic challenges it...

Garthwaite argues that the current public debate about Medicare For All fails to take into account the likely consequences that such a large change to the health-care system would...

Van Reenen argues the U.S. should pursue a robust innovation policy composed of tax credits, direct subsidies, and human capital investments, which have been shown to spur innovation and...

Gale argues that although historically low interest rates reduce the cost of government borrowing, they are not­ a "get out of jail free card." Rising debt will slowly but...

Rose argues that highly aggregated measures of concentration across industries, which are used in many of the most provocative studies, cannot be used to draw conclusions about concentration dynamics...

Philippon asserts that growth in aggregate measures of market concentration since the early 2000s is largely attributable to the weakening of competition. Lower levels of competition, Philippon argues, are...

A national debate about the strength and fairness of American capitalism is taking place against a backdrop of vast levels of income and wealth inequality, growing pessimism about the...

The American economic system has always been the foundation of our national strength. But this foundation is showing cracks—from high levels of income inequality, declining economic mobility, and persistent...

Incarceration rates in the United States have more than tripled in recent decades as rehabilitation has gradually taken a back seat to a policy agenda emphasizing punishment and incapacitation....

Career and technical education (CTE) is widely viewed as an important alternative to traditional four-year colleges, a means of increasing the earnings of U.S.workers, and an effective response to...

This chapter aims to provide policy makers with a useful framework for thinking about the question: “Why are so many people deciding that seeking work isn’t worth it?” After...

This chapter lays out some of the central questions policymakers should ask when considering plans to leverage online education for economically vulnerable mid-career Americans, as well as the state...

In this chapter, author David Neumark proposes a Higher Wages Tax Credit (HWTC) to partially offset the costs imposed by minimum wage increases on firms that employ low-skilled labor....

This proposal recognizes the simultaneous need for more college educated workers and also for a higher level of labor market skill among non-college educated individuals. The authors propose to...

In this chapter, author Michael R. Strain first discusses the wage-setting process and the conceptual issues that are of critical importance to any empirical investigation of the link between...

The pursuit of economic opportunity for all Americans is as important to the health of the country’s economy as it is to the strength of its democracy. The promise...

The U.S. economy in recent years has been characterized by slow average productivity growth and increasing productivity dispersion within industries. In this essay, author Chad Syverson discusses research into...

In order to stimulate employment in rural areas, author James P. Ziliak proposes a two-fold strategy of bringing “people to jobs” and “jobs to people,” an approach that combines...

In this chapter, author Robert Lerman argues that a large-scale apprenticeship program could address these challenges, while also yielding substantial additional gains for employers and the U.S. economy. He...

In this chapter, authors Jason Furman and Phillip Swagel propose two alternative policy options for promoting increased earnings and employment of low-income households: expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit...

State-level Minimum Zoning Mandates (MZMs) allowing landowners to build at a state-guaranteed minimum density, even in municipalities resistant to development, would be an effective means of encouraging denser housing...